Over the past five years, the number of cafés in the Netherlands has decreased from approximately 9.300 to 8.950, a decrease of 4%. Over a period of ten years, the decline is even more pronounced. In this period 1.324 cafés in the Netherlands or 13% disappeared.
If we look at the provincial development, it can be seen that only in Friesland, Overijssel and Drenthe the supply has increased again in the past 5 years. In Friesland there is a recovery, here they are almost back to the level of ten years ago. We also see a decline and stagnation in the supply in the large cities. Over the past 10 years, the number of cafés here has decreased by almost 11%. Over the past five years, the decline was only -1,6%. This and more is shown by research by Van Spronsen & Partners catering advice.
Development in Groningen
For example, the province of Groningen still had 2007 cafes in 404 and this is only 2016 in 335. In the city things went a bit less fast and in 2007 we still had 191 cafes and in 2016 there were 164.
Development in the cities
In the past ten years, the supply has only increased in Leeuwarden (+23%), Leiden (+11%) and The Hague (+6%). The biggest blows fell in this period in Enschede (-21%), Venlo (-20%) and Roermond (-18%).
Nevertheless, Venlo and Roermond, together with Maastricht and Amsterdam, have by far the most cafes related to the number of inhabitants. In 2016, the Netherlands had an average of one café per 1.900 inhabitants. In Maastricht there is no less than one café for every 770 inhabitants. Apeldoorn has the fewest cafes, relatively speaking, with more than 2.400 inhabitants per cafe.
Concept shift
Despite the fact that the entire sector is under pressure and the supply is declining, we see a varied picture per type of café. In 2007 the village/neighborhood cafes and the brown cafe jointly represented 61% of the entire sector, in 2012 this share fell to 56% and in 2016 this share fell to only 52%. The share of eateries, on the other hand, has increased in recent years. In 2007 this accounted for 22% of the cafés, increased to 2012% in 25 and in 2016 the share is even 28%.
Future
The number of cafés has fallen less rapidly in the past 5 years (-4%), after a decrease of -2007% in the period 2012-10. However, it seems that the decline will not stop for the time being. This is partly due to changing consumer behaviour. New generations no longer grew up with the café as the meeting point of their social life. The rise of social media, festivals and online streaming services such as Netflix is decreasing cafe visits. The sofa in the living room is therefore literally one of the café's major competitors.
Blurring and the decline in alcohol consumption with a growing focus on healthy living are also having an impact on the market. The new generation of entrepreneurs sees little point in small-scale café companies that have to be fully involved in the operation themselves. The sale and takeover of this type of café business has been stagnant for years.
The aging population (after a certain age visits to the catering industry decreases) and depopulation (concentration of inhabitants towards the large cities) also have repercussions on the sector, especially in rural areas. In view of these developments, we expect on balance that approximately 250-275 cafés will close in the next five years, which implies a decrease of almost 3%.
Opportunities
Of course there are also opportunities. The trend that has been going on for years to convert the café into an eatery will offer opportunities in specific circumstances. The village/neighborhood cafe and brown cafe should develop multiple revenue channels. This can be done by adding functions such as a pick-up point for parcels, a hugely increasing market due to the ever increasing internet sales. A pick-up and drop-off function for dry cleaners/laundries, a service point of banks (which are closing more and more offices and also removing more and more ATMs) or a municipal information desk for the elderly are also promising options. In this way, the café becomes the ''meeting point'' again and retains its local function. For the time being, there are restrictions here in view of the current Liquor and Catering legislation.
Read the industry booklet 'Het Café in Beeld' for more information.
